"we can't believe we are the first, nor that we are unique. It would be (statistically) extremely odd if we were"
Someone did a Bayesian analysis using probability distributions and found that, given what we observe (no aliens), there is a substantial probability we are the first civilization in the universe, or else the only one within galactic distances. They also inferred that whatever makes spacefaring life unlikely is probably in the past, not the future, which seems optimistic if you're worried about AGW or nuclear war.
"The Fermi question is not a paradox: it just looks like
one if one is overconfident in how well we know the
Drake equation parameters."
"The Fermi observation makes the most uncertain
priors move strongly, reinforcing the rare life guess
and an early great filter."
They end up with a 40% chance we are alone in the universe and about a 55% chance we are alone in our galaxy.
Someone did a Bayesian analysis using probability distributions and found that, given what we observe (no aliens), there is a substantial probability we are the first civilization in the universe, or else the only one within galactic distances. They also inferred that whatever makes spacefaring life unlikely is probably in the past, not the future, which seems optimistic if you're worried about AGW or nuclear war.
"The Fermi question is not a paradox: it just looks like one if one is overconfident in how well we know the Drake equation parameters."
"The Fermi observation makes the most uncertain priors move strongly, reinforcing the rare life guess and an early great filter."
They end up with a 40% chance we are alone in the universe and about a 55% chance we are alone in our galaxy.
http://www.jodrellbank.manchester.ac.uk/media/eps/jodrell-ba...