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Earth, Wind, and Solar Fire (increment.com)
31 points by amirmasoudabdol on March 1, 2021 | hide | past | favorite | 12 comments


>A 2014 Congressional report found that if more than eight transformers in the United States were destroyed simultaneously, the country’s entire grid system would collapse. Since it can take up to 20 months to build, test, and install new transformers, many areas could see extended periods with reduced grid power, or even none at all.

This is the scariest fact here. Even if we hardened against CMEs, there are other things that can threaten transformers(terrorism, extreme weather, etc). If it takes 20 months to replace these kinds of things(assuming you even have power to manufacture them), then we should have a backup supply. Ideally at least one for every one in operation.



> The attack, in which gunmen fired on 17 electrical transformers, resulted in more than $15 million worth of equipment damage, but it had little impact on the station's electrical power supply


Which is still pretty bad, considering what else $15 million could be spent on.


Anyone remember the solar flare warnings/EMP stuff where we would all be set back into the stone age? Since we are heading into Grand Solar Minimum now for a bit, at least we can not worry about solar flares (tongue-in-cheek). These systems the world over are usually poorly defended from natural or intentional threats. The US has atrocious handling of SCADA and attendant systems. Look at how fragile Texas is/was.


We are also overdue for a Geomagnetic reversal. The field strength can drops 20 times during such periods.

"a brief complete reversal 41,000 years ago, which led to the magnetic field strength dropping to an estimated 5% of normal during the reversal."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal


The NASA has visualizations of simulated CMEs of different strength on Youtube. Check it out here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLLq6plMjU0


Anyone else seeing a lot of these stories in the past few weeks? The article is good, and the danger is real, but I'm suspicious about why these stories are coming out all of a sudden, considering the level of danger has not changed. There's no new reason to be concerned.


I think there is tons of things aligning for something catastrophic this year. I suspect economic collapse due to loss of confidence in the USD.


Maybe because of recent events in Texas? Makes sense to me.


Yeah, I see this and immediately think of Texas. Helps that I have in-laws there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recency_bias


It's hard to predict natural disasters and it's impossible to prevent them. A global pandemic was a certainity, yet everyone was caught off guard. Why? No one invests too much time thinking about theoretical possibilities.




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