Google might be a mess now, but they have time. OpenAI and Anthropic are on barrowed time, Google has a built in money printer. They just need to outlast the others.
Plus they started making AI processors 11 years ago and invented the math behind “GPTs” 9 years ago. Gemini is way cheaper to run for them than it does for everyone else.
I think Gemini is really built for their biggest market — Google Search. You ask questions and get answers.
I’m sure they’ll figure out agentic flows. Google is always a mess when it comes to product. Don’t forget the Google chat sagas where it seems as if different parts of the company were making the same product.
In the "Intelligence applied" section, where they show the comparison animations, they are shown using a non-optimal UI.
There is not enough time to read the text, see old animation, and see new animation. Better would have been to keep the same animation on repeat, so that people have unlimited time to read the text and observer the animations.
Also, it jumps from example to example in the same video. Better would have been to show each separately, so that once user is done observing one example at their own pace, they can proceed to the next.
As a workaround, I had to open the video (just the video) in a new tab, pause once an example came up, read the text, then rewind to the start of the animation to see the old animation example, then rewind again, then see the new animation example, and then sometimes rewind again if I wanted to see the animation again. Then, once done with the example, I had to forward to the next example and repeat the above process again.
How do they consistently mess things up ?
Current market cap 3.7T, only Apple and Nvidia are bigger. Youtube is a huge success, Search is still growing at 10%-15% which is crazy, cloud growing at 35%ish, TPUs enable them to be independent from NVidia etc. Gemini market share went up from 5%-6% early 2025 to 21% early 2026. I personally bet Gemini market share will keep growing.
They are executing well on all verticals imo, not messing up.
Exactly. You might not like what Google does, but you can't deny it's a massive commercial success. Just because their approach to creating and delivering apps might not be to your liking, you might actually be the niche.
Yeah but if we think about this in terms of "people love dumb things", then it makes sense what the other person is saying, no? As an example, compare it to how people are when it comes to tech, as in, they are tech-illiterate. Us, power users would not want an OS that is dumbed down... or compare it to YouTubers who are richer than an SWE and all they do is upload "brainrot". That is the audience, that is why these YouTubers also have "massive commercial success".
You need some qualifiers. Google is very good at engineering. For example, I hate that Google uses my data to serve ads, but there isn't a tech company I would trust more to safe guard my data.
Where Google has fallen down is trying to productize new things. Imagine if Apple had Google's software prowess, or Google had Apple's ability to conceptualize a complete product.
Google hasn't seen its legacy ad revenue start to dent until products with built-in agents start to see mass adoption.
Writing is on the wall that orders of magnitude fewer people will be going to google.com or using an interactive Google search in the next 5 years though.
LLMs are pretty mediocre for a lot of money queries like searching to buy shoes, looking at flights etc due to them not being up to date. So sure you can use them as a wrapper on top of Google but I assume a huge chunk of people will just go to Google to do that or use Google agents. Chrome will prove a very valuable asset for that - the whole experience can become agentic and Google is very well positioend to convert billions of users into their AI.
Power of habit and also Google will deliver a very high quality experience at scale that only OpenAI can currently compete with.
I'm not saying their search / ads revenue is never gonna drop - it might. But it will be a slow process (as we can see. it's actually still freaking growing in the high tens) and Google is well positioned to recover the lost revenue with its A.I offerings.
LLMs can execute searches? You can absolutely send ChatGPT to look for a cheap flight and it will do pretty well. And because I am paying for ChatGPT rather than the advertiser's, I am the customer and not the product.
You may pay to ChatGPT, but sooner or later you will become their product too. All the conversations you had or will have will be turned into signals to match you with products from advertisers, maybe not directly in the conversation with them, but anywhere else. It's not a mater of if, but looking at the pace things are going, and how financially pressured openai is, it's only a matter of time that their conversations with them will be turned into profit in some way or another, they basically have no choice financially.
I was very surprised to find the opposite yesterday. I was asking ChatGPT about firearms and it hit a safeguard ~”I cannot give gun purchasing advice” so I switched to Gemini, and it happily answered the exact copy/paste question
Historically it was the opposite; OpenAI was yolo and Gemini overly cautious to the point of severely limiting utility
