Oracle debt holders are sweating profusely right now I imagine. How does OpenAI gets 300B$ to pay Oracle [1] when nVidia has to be convinced to shell out "just" 30B for actually purchasing nVidia hardware.
Easy, they just have to sell their overpriced vram chips (which haven't been manufactured yet), from their GPUs (which haven't been bought yet) which are in their data centers (the ones they're planning to build "soon"). It really isn't rocket science
Why would that happen? Extremely little will happen to the US economy if OAI fails. The government has absolutely no reason to bail them out beyond pure corruption.
OAI's most valuable assets are hardware that will be worthless in 6-8 years. The second most valuable assets are the code which other companies are doing just fine with their own. The third is the hype halo that keeps them getting these deals that are disconnected from reality. Nothing there is holding up the economy.
They only have 4,000 employees. If they all lost their jobs, it would barely be a blip in a monthly jobs report. It's not as though millions of people will lose their jobs disrupting the economy like COVID.
The only downside is some imaginary money vanishes and some investors take a haircut on the imaginary money.
"National Security", and the usual fluff about "ensuring that the United States remains at the forefront of cutting-edge AI technology". "Adversaries" will almost certainly be mentioned, "China" specifically has a 50% chance to be name-dropped.
> United States remains at the forefront of cutting-edge AI technology
then the US can just call up Google and Anthropic and use their on-par if not better cutting-edge AI technology. OpenAI just isn't important enough and alternatives exist to fill the crater they leave. Also, the public isn't a huge fan of AI taking all the jobs and it's an election year (albeit mid-term).
Their most valuable asset is the connections the CEO and others on the board have. The US is a banana republic, and the government chooses the winners. There's a continously escalating level of blatant corruption at the top level, and OAI positions themselves as the next recipient. Betting on OAI is betting on how far american democracy will fall. I don't think the odds are bad.
I said literally nothing about any specific person or officeholder. That said, as today's SCOTUS ruling reinforces, the president doesn't control the bank book. MAGA will riot (again) if the admin actually bailed out OAI.
Lehman was allowed to go under because hey, their liabilities numbered in the low billions plus they are such dicks anyway. Especially the Dick in charge.
Salient point being, it didn't seem like that big a deal. Compared to the high-powered AI deals it seems like nothing at all.
The next day, an important monetary fund broke the buck because well, they were into Lehman and that was no longer great business.
This was the OG monetary fund, not some fly by night operation and suddenly everyone was redeeming all there was to redeem with a religious fervor. This faith centered around Wall Street Broker the Redeemer, something like that. Not much of a religion but then these are very down-to-earth people.
Then AIG called. They bragged about their stroke of genius idea to raid their vaults for commercial paper, raising well over 10B just like that — paper they didn’t even know they had! Sounds crazy? Read the full story, it’s way crazier than can be put in a paragraph.
Briefly pausing here to let it sink in just how pedigreed the pedigree of these masters of the universe is. They got it all — the degrees, the grit, the genius. Only the creme de la creme get hired for the elevated job at the higher echelons of Wall Street skyscrapers.
But back to the story. The vault loot was impressive but it wouldn’t cut it.
Realizing now the surprising fact of these institutions being interconnected and this contagion well beyond controllable with social distancing (from Lehman), Hank Paulson, the hero of the story (the film version at least, the real story leaves you with a different impression of this shrewd operator) makes the difficult decision to tell the Pres that “oh hey, we’re fked but, idk, a trillion dollars could help a lot”.
His aides don’t like the t-word much, so they kinda vibe out a more palatable number and the rest is bailout history.
If you think Oracle took a risk taking out that loan, think again. That loan is the hedge. A gun to the head of the vaunted Markets, free but admittedly somewhat feeble, makes for a powerful persuasion tactic. They won’t even have to ask for the bailout — Wall Street will do it for them. Systemic risk. Need they say more?
Different than 2008? No doubt. The numbers flying around the DC buildout Ouroboros dwarf the 2008 headscratchers and the companies involved made sure to link up like tentacle monsters getting it on. Interconnected as they were, 2008 investment banks still were somewhat in competition with one another -- the 2026 batch of trouble are in bed with each other.
When you're 30k in debt and insolvent, it's your problem. 30mil in debt, the bank's problem. 30B? Not a problem at all, certainly nothing the Fed couldn't solve, for you and the bank. And solve it they will for what's the alternative? Show must go on.
I'm sorry, but this line is so condescending I can't bring myself to read whatever else you wrote. I really can't stand it when people feel the need to be so demeaning when disagreeing.
I completely understand what happened with the finance bubble in 07/08. This is nothing like it, at all.
your post doesn't make a lot of sense and it doesn't matter anyway. What happened in 2008/9 and what may eventually unfold in the AI bubble aren't comparable.
> Show must go on.
the show will go on without bailing out OpenAI, that much should be obvious to everyone.
There is a distinct possibility that the credit expansion for the datacenter buildout will turn the AI bubble into a 2008 like situation. That would be painful.
True., however I think it'll probably be more like the fiber buddle in the dotcom era, withsome bankruptcies and a lot of excess capacity. I don't think it'll spread as wide as 08 because that had bad debt sprinkled so far and wide that everything was infected. I think this is more contained. I think. I hope. Because the pop is coming...
OpenAI is not the one who will be requiring the bailout. they aren't even a public company, for one.
Oracle, Coreweave or both will be the ones requiring it, ostensibly. in reality it's much larger than that.
tremendous money has been invested into AI already, commitments for far more spending still have been made, contracts signed and funds borrowed. the DC building sites are abuzz with expensive effort and soon racks will welcome fresh batches of not-so-fresh previous gen GPUs.
investment is roaring like a locomotive joy-ride atop tracks freshly laid. AI executives are also roaring on any talk show and podcast that will have them but the path to profitability still leads through a maze of smoke and mirrors and hasn't been exactly charted.
you think the LPs of VC firms will just write off the losses when those are realized? O&C will just default on loans and their many creditors will let them?
there are tens if not hundreds of billions already locked in the storm cloud beyond the point of no return. financiers from all corners of finance and sundry are already holding a compartment or two in that bag, each.
when the bag turns out to be largely filled with hot air, i suppose all those powerful bagholders will just go "welp, we dun goof'd" and hold a Sprint Retro about the learnings that will be their consolation prize for the financial haircuts suffered.
perhaps if they had no other option, they would. they do have that other option and the debts in risk of default which, something tells me, creditors won't be able to write off without being pushed to the brink themselves, are the wedge already planted in the financial system the bailout breeze draft will gently blow through.
P.S. it's not that Oracle or any of the Magnate 7 are devoid of means to patch up the fabric of a battered balance sheet.
that wasn't the case in 2008, either. it's a little known and even less appreciated fact that parties tied up in Lehman on day of Chapter 11 filing were made whole to the tune of 100 cents on the dollar after all was said and done in the post-bankruptcy proceedings. sure it took 10 years but it happened.
in the heat of the moment, though, there's a burning hole in the pocket, runs on the bank imminent if not in motion already and 401 millions of voices crying out in anguish.
that's no time for methodical disbursement, it's time for the hair-on-fire vaudeville act Wall Street had gotten rather good at throughout the numerous reruns of that particular number they performed to date.
it will be politically absolutely unacceptable and a burning public grievance for numerous news cycles. so what? as if that spectacle of manifest outrage, justified and futile, was anything but jolly good entertainment for those looking on at it from the gallery.
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/90aa74a5-b39d-4131-a138-367726cb1...