No, your chances of success are extremely low whatever how you do it, so better do something you like.

And the most relevant bias here is not selection bias, it's the one that makes every driver believe they are above average drivers. The same happens with mergers too: the boss believes he will better than the other one, and forget about all the difficulties and costs of a merge.

I think that if you really need the money you probably should work in a big corp.